The data & PR team at SALT.agency has delved into 2023’s online Eurovision data to predict this year’s winners.

Using search volume, publicity, and social media noise, we have predicted the winners of the UK’s second-biggest event this month.

Overall 2023 winner prediction

Using a complex data methodology, we have accumulated all the data and predicted 2023’s Eurovision winners by combining a special blend of data. With that, we predict that France will be crowned 2023’s winner.

 Country  Predicted Position
 France  Winner
 Sweden  Second
 Italy  Third
 Israel  4th
 Switzerland  5th
 United Kingdom  6th
 Norway  7th
 Spain  8th
 Finland  9th
 Germany  10th

Search volume popularity by artist

This year features a list of talented artists. Across the world, fans are searching for their favoured artists.

We collected and analysed this data to show which artists are searched for the most through Google.

Marco Mengonia tops the list with a whopping 68,450 searches.

The Italian singer is a clear fan favourite, followed by the beats of La Zarra, boasting an impressive 45,300 searches.

The combined search popularity of these two artists makes up 67.3% of search popularity for all artists.

Publication popularity by country

We predict that articles published and received by each country will greatly influence the public vote.

Greece stood strong, with nearly 50,000 articles covering the country’s entry. However, the country has not reached the grand final.

The closest competing country is the UK, with less than half of that.

Adding to the intrigue Ukraine is 16th most searched and 22nd in publicity.

Top 10 Countries by Online Publicity 
Country Articles Written
Greece 49739
United Kingdom 24690
Italy 18587
Romania 10700
France 9800
Spain 6376
Albania 6228
Germany 6074
Cyprus 4837
Moldova 4366

As predicted, some of the countries with the lowest online publicity did not make it through last night’s semi-finals.

Bottom 10 Countries by Online Publicity
Country Articles written
Georgia 59
Latvia 97
San Marino 175
Croatia 186
Czech Republic 193
Serbia 213
Lithuania 232
Estonia 338
Armenia 413
Finland 453

Social media noise by country

Ukraine has garnered a lot of competition coverage, coming in 7th place.

Interestingly, Switzerland has the highest engagement, but last won in 1988, while Azerbaijan has the lowest, and won in 2011.

As predicted, the country did not make it to the grand finals.

Top Ten Countries By Social Engagement
Position Country Social Engagement
1 Switzerland 3057
2 Serbia 1603
3 Lithuania 1344
4 Finland 1235
5 Croatia 673
6 France 494
7 Ukraine 377
8 Israel 369
9 Iceland 345
10 Norway 321

As assumed by our specialist indexing, a large portion of the countries did not make it through to the finals.

Bottom Ten Countries By Social Engagement
Position Country Social Engagement
1 Albania 82
2 Czech Republic 58
3 Greece 58
4 Armenia 54
5 San Marino 51
6 Georgia 44
7 Austria 37
8 Slovenia 24
9 Cyprus 23
10 Azerbaijan 15

Do populations make a difference?

It’s no secret that the number of votes could significantly determine the final positions at Eurovision, despite countries being unable to vote for themselves. Could the population size of each participating country partially influence votes?

Many smaller countries did not make it to the grand final. That said, both the Netherlands and Romania, with populations over 17 and 19 million, respectively, did not reach 2023’s grand final.

Top Ten Countries By Population Bottom Ten Countries By Population
Country Population Country Population
Germany 83,783,942 San Marino 33,931
United Kingdom 67,886,011 Iceland 341,243
France 65,273,511 Malta 441,543
Italy 60,461,826 Cyprus 1,207,359
Spain 46,754,778 Estonia 1,326,535
Ukraine 43,733,762 Latvia 1,886,198
Poland 37,846,611 Slovenia 2,078,938
Australia 25,499,884 Lithuania 2,722,289
Romania 19,237,691 Albania 2,877,797
Netherlands 17,134,872 Armenia 2,963,243

Taking a quick look at the relationship between the number of times won and populations, we can see there is a positive correlation.

Yet, there are many outliers. Germany has the largest population but hasn’t won since 2010.

Where does the UK sit?

There is a glimmer of hope for the UK. The odds of a triumphant victory for Mae Muller have quietly gained momentum, possibly thanks to the Coronation.

Though it is premature to make grand predictions about the UK’s Eurovision success, a sense of optimism lingers as we find ourselves in 6th place.

Previous winners!

Regarding previous winners, Ireland claims the top spot (7), followed by Sweden (6), this year’s favourites.

Despite the country’s impressive track record, Ireland sits in 22nd place on social media coverage.

This might have affected the country’s inability to progress beyond the semi-finals.